With Midterms approaching, Trump waives off Russian tariffs to save his plummeting ratings, pressure tactics failed? What this means for the World?

After months and months of tariffs and blocks on Russia, justified in every way by the USA, a move that sent the global and national economies plummeting across the globe, now the US President Donald Trump has waived off key sanctions and tariff measures targeting Moscow and countries purchasing Russian oil and gas. The decision offers a massive albeit temporary relief to the global economy while raising fresh questions about the future of the Russia-Ukraine war and the consistency of US sanctions policy.

According to a Reuters report published on October 17, Trump invoked a waiver provision under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, citing US national interests. The legislation had authorised tariffs of up to 100% on imports from major buyers of Russian energy under specified conditions. The waiver pauses the application of the relevant measures, but it does not amount to the cancellation of every US sanction against Russia.

Why has Trump waived the sanctions?

From coming into his second term with such a strong mandate Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has now fallen to record second-term lows, ranging between 30% and 38% across major national polls ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

Persistent inflation and high living costs have heavily eroded public confidence, with only about 17% to 28% approving of his handling of the cost of living and the economy.

The escalating conflict with Iran has also driven up the U.S. gas prices (averaging over $4.33 per gallon), with only roughly 30% to 34% of voters approving of his military actions.

The decision to give Russia a waver comes at a time when global energy markets are facing supply pressures and consumers are dealing with elevated fuel costs. The ongoing US conflict with Iran has also destroyed energy supply routes in the entire Middle East.

Continuing the punitive tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil could make Russian crude more expensive. If large volumes of Russian oil were removed from the international market, the resulting supply shortage could push global crude prices higher.

The timing really matters politically. The United States is approaching its November 2026 midterm elections, when economic conditions, inflation and fuel prices could influence voters. Higher petrol and diesel prices would create an additional challenge for the administration.

The waiver suggests that immediate economic and energy considerations have taken priority over implementing the new penalties at this stage. It seems the great bravado showcased as an attempt to bully Russia and intimidate its trading partners has backfired spectacularly.

For Russia this gives a great leeway to Putin, giving Moscow leg room with the USA, integrating again with the global economy as well as earning billions through the energy trade.

What does this mean for India and China?

India and China are among the countries most directly affected by the decision because of their substantial purchases of Russian crude oil.

Since the Russia Ukraine war began in February 2022, Indian refiners have increased purchases of Russian oil, attracted partly by competitive prices and the availability of alternative supplies as Western restrictions reshaped global energy trade.

India depends heavily on imported crude to meet its domestic energy requirements. Russian supplies have consequently become an important component of its energy-security strategy.

Indian refiners can make purchasing decisions with less immediate concern about the specific penalties covered by the waiver. Continued access to competitively priced Russian crude could help manage refining costs and reduce pressure on domestic fuel prices.

The decision could also create more room for India and the US to pursue trade negotiations without the immediate threat of additional Russia-related tariffs dominating discussions.

Nevertheless, it does not resolve every disagreement between the two countries. Broader trade terms, market access and future US policy decisions will continue to shape the relationship.

India has repeatedly emphasised energy security and diversified sourcing. New Delhi will look to balance its relationship with Washington, its longstanding ties with Moscow and the need to obtain reliable energy supplies at sustainable prices.

For Beijing, Russian oil is an important part of a broad energy-import portfolio that also includes supplies from the Middle East and other producers.

The waiver could have three major implications.

First, it reduces the immediate risk of additional US trade penalties associated with purchases of Russian energy under the new law.

Second, it gives Chinese refiners greater room to negotiate Russian crude purchases without the same immediate threat from these particular measures.

Third, it highlights the continuing economic interdependence between energy-exporting Russia and major Asian economies.

For both the BRICS powers this is a great opportunity as more oil will flood into the market but this may also mean that the lucrative discount deals on Russian oil may be gone. With the Middle East supply routes still in disarray the oil prices may now even go up.

What does this mean for Ukraine and the war with Russia?

The consequences for Ukraine are more complicated. Since the Russia Ukriane war beagn, Ukraine and its supporters have sought to limit Moscow’s ability to finance its military campaign. Sanctions targeting Russian energy revenues have formed part of that strategy.

If the waiver enables Russian oil and gas trade to continue with fewer restrictions under the specified law, Moscow could retain access to important export markets and revenue streams.

That may weaken the intended economic pressure of the newly authorised measures. Critics of the waiver in Washington have argued that relaxing restrictions risks benefiting the Russian government while the war continues.

For Ukraine, the central concern is whether Russia’s energy income helps sustain its military operations and reduces the economic pressure intended to arm twist Putin. It seems Moscow has come out on top in the end as USA has once again integrated its oil trade back into the global economy.

How will this affect the US midterm elections?

Trump is hoping that the waiver will now give him a domestic political boost. The November 2026 midterm elections will determine the composition of the US Congress, making the cost of living, inflation and energy prices important issues for the administration and lawmakers.

Higher oil prices can affect transport costs, freight charges, manufacturing expenses and household fuel bills. If imposing new penalties on Russian energy buyers were to contribute to a supply shortage, the resulting price increases could create political pressure on the government.

By pausing the specified measures, Trump can seek to limit the immediate risk of an additional energy-price shock. At the same time, the move has attracted criticism from politicians who argue that relaxing sanctions undermines the purpose of legislation intended to pressure Russia over Ukraine. The move is a big risk Trump has taken to save his falling ratings and woo back the American voter.

It now seems that the great power moves Trump boasted of and targeted Russia, India and China with has ended up with him buckling over while the three BRICS powers continued their oil and gas trade. This is a major geopolitical setback for the USA, Trump haa opted for the supposed domestic political gains rather than keep pushing for the role of the self appointed global policeman.

What happens to global oil prices?

The immediate market impact will depend on expectations as much as on actual supply.

When traders believe that additional restrictions could disrupt Russian oil exports, they may anticipate tighter supplies and higher prices. A waiver can reduce that particular risk by allowing buyers and sellers to plan with greater confidence.

But the decision is only one factor affecting the market. Developments in the Middle East, the security of shipping routes, global economic growth, production decisions and demand from China and India will also influence crude prices.

Moreover, the waiver does not necessarily create additional oil production. It primarily changes the immediate regulatory risks associated with the specified transactions.

Consequently, a decline in prices is possible if traders view the decision as easing supply concerns, but a sustained fall cannot be guaranteed.

The executive order states that the waiver will remain in effect until Trump or relevant officials determine that further action is appropriate. This leaves open the possibility of a future policy change.

Businesses, refiners and governments will therefore need to distinguish between the current suspension of the specified measures and a permanent change to US policy towards Russia.

The decision also does not automatically remove other sanctions that may apply to Russian companies, financial institutions, shipping arrangements or particular transactions. Buyers must continue to assess the rules applicable to each transaction.

Ultimately, the long-term significance of the waiver will depend on global oil supplies, the floundering middle eastern supply routes, the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and where the Trump administration stands post the coming mid terms.